Spectometer Plateau Leap Alert: Jabari Blash

Jabari Blash is fun.  Never any doubt about that.

Of course, just saying “Jabari Blash” is fun.

And when you have a slugger named “Blash” who routinely deposits balls in the seats, then the “Blash Splash” tag is a natural.  And that’s fun too.

But is Jabari Blash more than just fun to follow?  Is he a legit prospect?

Prior to 2013, I have said “not really.”  But now … “maybe.”

Absolutely, certainly … maybe!

First off, Blash is the epitome of the dreaded “raw, toolsy” prospect.  I tend to be biased against the “raw, toolsy” prospects.  Not per se but only the ones that quite evidently lack “plate skills.”

Alex Liddi was always a raw, toolsy prospect who lacked plate skills.  Michael Saunders was raw and toolsy, but didn’t lack plate skills.  Get the difference?

Can one succeed long-term in the majors without “plate skills”?  Yes … but …

You have GOT to be a slugger.  Moreover, you have got to be a “slugger who walks.”

Meaning: if you’re going to strike out a lot, then hit homers in about 4% of plate appearances and walk in about 10% of PAs.  Otherwise, you’re in trouble.

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Carlos Peguero (even setting aside his wife’s felonious hijinks): had the power, but never walked nearly enough.  

Casper Wells: in the end, didn’t have enough power or draw enough walks (he teased with his power, but has only averaged 3.3% HR/PA).

Compare and contrast: Mark Reynolds: 5.1% HR/PA and 11.6% BB/PA.  He can make it work, though he’s not an all-star or anything with that high K%.

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Or compare the Uptons.

Justin is consistently over 110 OPS+, at 6.0 RC/27 and .350 wOBA.

B.J. is inconsistent and around 100 OPS+, 4.7 RC/27 and .325 wOBA.

They both walk (10.4% Justin; 10.5% B.J.), but Justin has been a slugger who walks (3.7% HR/PA) while B.J. has not (2.8% HR/PA) (that's not really above average).

In other words, if you want your “raw, toolsy” guy to be on target for long-term success, you want him to look more like Justin than B.J.

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So what about Blash?

First, a little background.  He’s from St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, where baseball is not a huge sport, and was not an “out-playing-ball-every-day” kid.  He’s clearly on the “raw” side of that equation.

Second, he’s a stud athlete and 6-foot-5, 225.  Obviously, on the “toolsy” side as well.

He was drafted out of his V.I. high school in the 29th round by the White Sox, but chose to attend junior college at Miami-Dade (a top program).  After a year there, the Rangers drafted him in the 9th round, but he turned down $250,000 to return.  Then he was suspended from the team the following year, but the Mariners took him anyway in the 8th round.

Interestingly, Baseball America had him at No. 47 on this list of Floridians in the 2010 draft, with Manny Machado and Chris Sale at the top of it.

So he was already a bit old when he was sent to Pulaski, and he’s fought through injuries and inconsistency since then.

As a result, 2013 was his age-23 season, and he still hadn’t advanced past Low-A Clinton.  It was put-up-or-shut-up time, and I was so discouraged by his .245/.355/.433 2012 season, that I dropped him out of the Spec66 and down to the “Watch List.”

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Was that warranted?  

Let’s see.

In 2010, in his first partial season, he hit homers in 3.9% of PAs and walked in 10.2%.  That’s fairly good “slugger who walks” territory, except his K% was 32.1% … super-high, and not sustainable.

In 2011, he improved a lot.  In fact, 2011 could be his first plateau leap.  He homered in 3.6% of PAs (very good, but not monster-slugger territory), and his BB% jumped to 16.9%!  That walk rate was so off-the-chart that it didn’t seem repeatable (and it hasn’t been), but still a sign that maybe something was going on here.  And his K% dropped, but almost anything would be a drop from 32.1% (it fell to a still-high 27.6%).

Then in 2012 he stayed parked at Clinton, and didn’t really show any progress at all.  He didn’t homer more, walk more or strikeout less.

So, indeed, he was on the verge of falling off the map, after an age-22 season in Low-A that didn’t show any progress.

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But, ah … 2013.

He started in High-A High Desert, and that distorts his stats.  So a 23-year-old with power going bonkers in the thin, windy air of Adelanto doesn’t necessarily prove much.

But a pretty tour it was, as he banged out 16 homers in just 80 games, kept that walk rate high, and kept the K% within reason (for a “slugger who walks” mind you) at 25.6%.

And, more importantly, he earned what he needed most: a promotion to AA Jackson.  That’s where we’d see if this was a desert mirage or a real plateau-leap.

And it was only 29 games and 120 PAs, but …

Let’s look at those “slugger who walks” numbers at Jackson:

HR/PA = 7.5%

BB/PA = 16.7%

K/PA = 23.3%

Those, my friends, are remarkable numbers.  Compare Chris Davis, whom, as you know, hit 53 deep balls this year:

HR/PA = 7.9%

BB/PA = 10.7%

K/PA = 29.6%

Or Giancarlo Stanton, the ultimate “slugger who walks” (admittedly, a down year):

HR/PA = 4.8%

BB/PA = 14.7%

K/PA = 27.8%

Now, you obviously can’t just project MLB numbers from AA.  But Blash needed to show he could hit at AA to get on the map for real … and boy did he.

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